Most Recoveries Are Announced Months After They Begin
Waiting for a Recession to End May Carry Opportunity Cost Since 1979, when the National Bureau of Economic Research began to formally announce the beginning and ending dates of U.S. economic recessions, the U.S. economy has fallen into recession five times. In each case, the recession was between six months and one year old before the NBER was able to detect it and announce its beginning date. The bureau took an average of 15 months after a recession was over to announce when it had ended. Recessions take a psychological toll that almost certainly spills over into the early months…